Bałtyk Gdynia 5–2 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

Bałtyk Gdynia

5 – 2

Bytovia Bytów

2/6/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bałtyk Gdynia42%

×Draw20%

Bytovia Bytów38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bałtyk GdyniaExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.13

Bałtyk Gdynia

2.25

Bytovia Bytów

2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

2.25

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Bałtyk Gdynia

2.00

Bytovia Bytów

2.00

allows per match

Bałtyk Gdynia

2.25

Bytovia Bytów

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Gdynia ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Bałtyk Gdynia or draw

62%

Bałtyk Gdynia or Bytovia Bytów

80%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

58%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+

24%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals

89%

Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals

65%

Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals

39%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

88%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

63%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)

53%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Gdynia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 2.00 + Bytovia Bytów defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bytovia Bytów attack 2.00 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bałtyk Gdynia scores more

42%

level

20%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

38%

Bałtyk Gdynia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bałtyk Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff