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Cajazeiras vs Galícia — Baiano - 2 2019

Cajazeiras
Cajazeiras
FT
4 – 0
Galícia
Galícia
4/14/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio 25 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cajazeiras48%
×Draw25%
Galícia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cajazeiras
1.56
Galícia
1.08

Cajazeiras creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cajazeiras
1.60
Galícia
1.16

allows per match

Cajazeiras
1.00
Galícia
1.53

finishing

Cajazeiras+0.00on par
Galícia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cajazeiras ↓

Galícia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cajazeiras or draw
74%
Cajazeiras or Galícia
75%
Draw or Galícia
52%

Winning margin

Cajazeiras wins by 2+
25%
Galícia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cajazeiras 1+ goals
79%
Cajazeiras 2+ goals
46%
Cajazeiras 3+ goals
21%
Galícia 1+ goals
66%
Galícia 2+ goals
29%
Galícia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cajazeiras (draw refunded)
65%
Galícia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cajazeiras at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Galícia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cajazeiras attack 1.60 + Galícia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Galícia attack 1.16 + Cajazeiras defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cajazeiras scores more
48%
level
25%
Galícia scores more
26%

Cajazeiras at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cajazeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cajazeiras vs Galícia

Cajazeiras beat Galícia 4-0 in Baiano - 2 on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio 25 de Junho in Cachoeira, Bahia.