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B71 vs HB II — 1. Deild 2019

B71
B71
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HB II
HB II
8/25/20241. Deild1. Deild · Round 20inni í Dal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

B7159%
×Draw20%
HB II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B71
2.29
HB II
1.30

B71 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 90 away

creates per match

B71
2.36
HB II
1.47

allows per match

B71
1.14
HB II
2.23

finishing

B71+0.00on par
HB II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B71 ↓

HB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

B71 or draw
79%
B71 or HB II
80%
Draw or HB II
41%

Winning margin

B71 wins by 2+
37%
HB II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

B71 1+ goals
90%
B71 2+ goals
66%
B71 3+ goals
40%
HB II 1+ goals
73%
HB II 2+ goals
37%
HB II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

B71 (draw refunded)
74%
HB II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B71 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.14 · 104 matches

HB II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B71 attack 2.36 + HB II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.29

HB II attack 1.47 + B71 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

B71 scores more
59%
level
20%
HB II scores more
21%

B71 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "B71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

B71 3 – 0 HB II

B71 beat HB II 3-0 in 1. Deild on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at inni í Dal in Sandur, Sandoy.