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B68 vs Skála II — 1. Deild 2019

B68
B68
FT
0 – 0
Skála II
Skála II
8/16/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 19Svangaskarð (graslíkisvøllur) (Toftir, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B6853%
×Draw22%
Skála II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68
1.95
Skála II
1.27

B68 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

B68
2.04
Skála II
1.21

allows per match

B68
1.33
Skála II
1.86

finishing

B68+0.00on par
Skála II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

Skála II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

B68 or draw
75%
B68 or Skála II
78%
Draw or Skála II
47%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+
31%
Skála II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals
86%
B68 2+ goals
58%
B68 3+ goals
31%
Skála II 1+ goals
72%
Skála II 2+ goals
36%
Skála II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)
68%
Skála II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Skála II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 2.04 + Skála II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.95

Skála II attack 1.21 + B68 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

B68 scores more
53%
level
22%
Skála II scores more
25%

B68 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "B68 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

B68 0 – 0 Skála II

B68 and Skála II drew 0-0 in 1. Deild on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Svangaskarð (graslíkisvøllur) (Toftir, Eysturoy).