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B68 vs KÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

B68
B68
FT
1 – 2
KÍ II
KÍ II
10/25/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 27Svangaskarð (Toftir, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

B6846%
×Draw22%
KÍ II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68
1.97
KÍ II
1.60

B68 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 94 away

creates per match

B68
2.04
KÍ II
1.86

allows per match

B68
1.33
KÍ II
1.90

finishing

B68+0.00on par
KÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

KÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

B68 or draw
68%
B68 or KÍ II
78%
Draw or KÍ II
54%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+
26%
KÍ II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals
86%
B68 2+ goals
58%
B68 3+ goals
31%
KÍ II 1+ goals
80%
KÍ II 2+ goals
47%
KÍ II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)
59%
KÍ II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

KÍ II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.90 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 2.04 + KÍ II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.97

KÍ II attack 1.86 + B68 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

B68 scores more
46%
level
22%
KÍ II scores more
32%

B68 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "B68 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: B68 vs KÍ II

KÍ II beat B68 2-1 in 1. Deild on October 25, 2019.

The match was played at Svangaskarð (Toftir, Eysturoy).