B68 3–0 EB / Streymur II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

B68

FT

3 – 0

EB / Streymur II

10/4/2019

1. Deild · Round 25Svangaskarð (Toftir, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

B6870%

×Draw16%

EB / Streymur II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B68Expected goals in this matchEB / Streymur II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

1.17

B68

2.74

EB / Streymur II

1.17

B68 creates 134% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 61 away

2.00

creates per match

1.03

1.30

allows per match

3.48

creates per match

B68

2.00

EB / Streymur II

1.03

allows per match

B68

1.30

EB / Streymur II

3.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B68+0.00on par

EB / Streymur II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

EB / Streymur II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

B68 or draw

86%

B68 or EB / Streymur II

84%

Draw or EB / Streymur II

30%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+

49%

EB / Streymur II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals

93%

B68 2+ goals

75%

B68 3+ goals

51%

EB / Streymur II 1+ goals

69%

EB / Streymur II 2+ goals

33%

EB / Streymur II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)

83%

EB / Streymur II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

EB / Streymur II away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 2.00 + EB / Streymur II defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.74

EB / Streymur II attack 1.03 + B68 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

B68 scores more

70%

level

16%

EB / Streymur II scores more

14%

B68 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "B68 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff