Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

B68 II vs NSI Runavik — 1. Deild 2019

B68 II
B68 II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
NSI Runavik
NSI Runavik
5/27/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 11Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B68 II17%
×Draw17%
NSI Runavik66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68 II
1.29
NSI Runavik
2.65

NSI Runavik creates 105% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

B68 II
1.29
NSI Runavik
2.43

allows per match

B68 II
2.86
NSI Runavik
1.29

finishing

B68 II+0.00on par
NSI Runavik+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 II ↓

NSI Runavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

B68 II or draw
34%
B68 II or NSI Runavik
83%
Draw or NSI Runavik
83%

Winning margin

B68 II wins by 2+
7%
NSI Runavik wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

B68 II 1+ goals
72%
B68 II 2+ goals
37%
B68 II 3+ goals
14%
NSI Runavik 1+ goals
93%
NSI Runavik 2+ goals
74%
NSI Runavik 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

B68 II (draw refunded)
20%
NSI Runavik (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

NSI Runavik away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 II attack 1.29 + NSI Runavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

NSI Runavik attack 2.43 + B68 II defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

B68 II scores more
17%
level
17%
NSI Runavik scores more
66%

NSI Runavik at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "NSI Runavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: B68 II 0–3 NSI Runavik

NSI Runavik beat B68 II 3-0 in 1. Deild on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Svangaskarð in Toftir, Eysturoy.