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B68 II vs Hoyvík — 1. Deild 2019

B68 II
B68 II
FT
2 – 1
Hoyvík
Hoyvík
3/9/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 2Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B68 II39%
×Draw21%
Hoyvík41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68 II
2.03
Hoyvík
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 48 away

creates per match

B68 II
1.29
Hoyvík
1.31

allows per match

B68 II
2.86
Hoyvík
2.77

finishing

B68 II+0.00on par
Hoyvík+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 II ↓

Hoyvík →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

B68 II or draw
59%
B68 II or Hoyvík
79%
Draw or Hoyvík
61%

Winning margin

B68 II wins by 2+
21%
Hoyvík wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

B68 II 1+ goals
87%
B68 II 2+ goals
60%
B68 II 3+ goals
33%
Hoyvík 1+ goals
87%
Hoyvík 2+ goals
61%
Hoyvík 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

B68 II (draw refunded)
49%
Hoyvík (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Hoyvík away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.77 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 II attack 1.29 + Hoyvík defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.03

Hoyvík attack 1.31 + B68 II defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

B68 II scores more
39%
level
21%
Hoyvík scores more
41%

Hoyvík at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hoyvík will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

B68 II 2 – 1 Hoyvík

B68 II beat Hoyvík 2-1 in 1. Deild on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at Svangaskarð in Toftir, Eysturoy.