Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

B68 II vs B71 — 1. Deild 2019

B68 II
B68 II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
B71
B71
6/10/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 13Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B68 II28%
×Draw20%
B7152%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68 II
1.63
B71
2.26

B71 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 101 away

creates per match

B68 II
1.29
B71
1.67

allows per match

B68 II
2.86
B71
1.96

finishing

B68 II+0.00on par
B71+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 II ↓

B71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

B68 II or draw
48%
B68 II or B71
80%
Draw or B71
72%

Winning margin

B68 II wins by 2+
13%
B71 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

B68 II 1+ goals
80%
B68 II 2+ goals
48%
B68 II 3+ goals
22%
B71 1+ goals
89%
B71 2+ goals
66%
B71 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

B68 II (draw refunded)
35%
B71 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

B71 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.96 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 II attack 1.29 + B71 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.63

B71 attack 1.67 + B68 II defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

B68 II scores more
28%
level
20%
B71 scores more
52%

B71 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "B71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: B68 II vs B71

B68 II beat B71 1-0 in 1. Deild on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Svangaskarð in Toftir, Eysturoy.