B36 Torshavn 2–1 Haverfordwest County AFC

B36 Torshavn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Haverfordwest County AFC

A. Johansen 60'

H. Agnarsson 11'

M. Taylor-Crossdale 79'

7/27/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundGundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

B36 Torshavn44%

×Draw29%

Haverfordwest County AFC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B36 TorshavnExpected goals in this matchHaverfordwest County AFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.92

B36 Torshavn

1.25

Haverfordwest County AFC

0.92

B36 Torshavn creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.83

creates per match

0.67

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

B36 Torshavn

0.83

Haverfordwest County AFC

0.67

allows per match

B36 Torshavn

1.17

Haverfordwest County AFC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B36 Torshavn+0.00on par

Haverfordwest County AFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 Torshavn ↓

Haverfordwest County AFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

B36 Torshavn or draw

73%

B36 Torshavn or Haverfordwest County AFC

71%

Draw or Haverfordwest County AFC

56%

Winning margin

B36 Torshavn wins by 2+

20%

Haverfordwest County AFC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

B36 Torshavn 1+ goals

71%

B36 Torshavn 2+ goals

36%

B36 Torshavn 3+ goals

13%

Haverfordwest County AFC 1+ goals

60%

Haverfordwest County AFC 2+ goals

23%

Haverfordwest County AFC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)

62%

Haverfordwest County AFC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 Torshavn at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Haverfordwest County AFC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 Torshavn attack 0.83 + Haverfordwest County AFC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Haverfordwest County AFC attack 0.67 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

B36 Torshavn scores more

44%

level

29%

Haverfordwest County AFC scores more

27%

B36 Torshavn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "B36 Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

H. Agnarsson

28'

Magnus Egilsson

45+1'

Tyrese Owen

46'

J. Wilson← J. Richards

60'

A. Johansen

73'

V. Šabala← M. Przybylski

79'

M. Taylor-Crossdale

82'

Hannes Agnarsson

85'

A. Knudsen← B. Nielsen

85'

M. Hellisdal← E. Nielsen

85'

E. Joensen← Taufee Skandari

90'

B. Heinesen← S. Sólheim

Statistics

B36Haverfordwest

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1