B36 Torshavn 2–1 AB: Result & Stats

B36 Torshavn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AB

V. Šabala 71'

A. Knudsen 4'

T. Olsen 19'

5/29/2023

Meistaradeildin · Round 11Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

B36 Torshavn67%

×Draw18%

AB15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B36 TorshavnExpected goals in this matchAB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.04

B36 Torshavn

2.37

AB

1.04

B36 Torshavn creates 128% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 61 away

2.01

creates per match

0.93

1.16

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

B36 Torshavn

2.01

AB

0.93

allows per match

B36 Torshavn

1.16

AB

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B36 Torshavn+0.00on par

AB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 Torshavn ↓

AB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

B36 Torshavn or draw

85%

B36 Torshavn or AB

82%

Draw or AB

33%

Winning margin

B36 Torshavn wins by 2+

44%

AB wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

B36 Torshavn 1+ goals

91%

B36 Torshavn 2+ goals

68%

B36 Torshavn 3+ goals

42%

AB 1+ goals

65%

AB 2+ goals

28%

AB 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)

81%

AB (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 Torshavn at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.16 · 102 matches

AB away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.72 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 Torshavn attack 2.01 + AB defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.37

AB attack 0.93 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

B36 Torshavn scores more

67%

level

18%

AB scores more

15%

B36 Torshavn at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "B36 Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Knudsen

12'

J. Breckmann

19'

T. Olsen

52'

54'

A. Johansen← A. Knudsen

54'

H. Agnarsson← T. Skandari

66'

M. Egilsson← S. Nattestad

70'

B. Petersen← T. Olsen

71'

V. Šabala

85'

R. Nielsen← S. Pollard

87'

E. Nielsen← V. Šabala

87'

M. Hellisdal← E. Joensen

90+4'

B. Petersen

B36

AB

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Šabala

Nielsen

Manager: D. Brimsvík

54'▲A. Johansen←▼A. Knudsen

54'▲H. Agnarsson←▼T. Skandari

66'▲M. Egilsson←▼S. Nattestad

87'▲E. Nielsen←▼V. Šabala

87'▲M. Hellisdal←▼E. Joensen

B36 Torshavn substitutes

JohansenAgnarssonEgilssonNielsenHellisdalEriksenJørgensen

Manager: H. Larsen

70'▲B. Petersen←▼T. Olsen

85'▲R. Nielsen←▼S. Pollard

AB substitutes

PetersenNielsenDanielsenReynslágGottbergMehlTønning