Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

B36 II vs B68 — 1. Deild 2019

B36 II
B36 II
FT
1 – 1
B68
B68
6/15/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 13Gundadalur (Tórshavn, Streymoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

B36 II39%
×Draw23%
B6839%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B36 II
1.67
B68
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 23 away

creates per match

B36 II
1.85
B68
1.65

allows per match

B36 II
1.68
B68
1.48

finishing

B36 II+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 II ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

B36 II or draw
61%
B36 II or B68
77%
Draw or B68
61%

Winning margin

B36 II wins by 2+
19%
B68 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

B36 II 1+ goals
81%
B36 II 2+ goals
50%
B36 II 3+ goals
23%
B68 1+ goals
81%
B68 2+ goals
50%
B68 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

B36 II (draw refunded)
50%
B68 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

B68 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 II attack 1.85 + B68 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

B68 attack 1.65 + B36 II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

B36 II scores more
39%
level
23%
B68 scores more
39%

B36 II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "B36 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: B36 II vs B68

B36 II and B68 drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on June 15, 2019.

The match was played at Gundadalur (Tórshavn, Streymoy).