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B36 II vs AB II — 1. Deild 2019

B36 II
B36 II
FT
0 – 0
AB II
AB II
6/10/20151. Deild1. Deild · Round 14Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

B36 II54%
×Draw21%
AB II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B36 II
2.13
AB II
1.38

B36 II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

B36 II
1.85
AB II
1.07

allows per match

B36 II
1.68
AB II
2.40

finishing

B36 II+0.00on par
AB II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 II ↓

AB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

B36 II or draw
75%
B36 II or AB II
79%
Draw or AB II
46%

Winning margin

B36 II wins by 2+
33%
AB II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

B36 II 1+ goals
88%
B36 II 2+ goals
63%
B36 II 3+ goals
35%
AB II 1+ goals
75%
AB II 2+ goals
40%
AB II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

B36 II (draw refunded)
69%
AB II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

AB II away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 II attack 1.85 + AB II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.13

AB II attack 1.07 + B36 II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

B36 II scores more
54%
level
21%
AB II scores more
25%

B36 II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "B36 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: B36 II vs AB II

B36 II and AB II drew 0-0 in 1. Deild on June 10, 2015.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.