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Bærum vs Vålerenga II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Bærum
Bærum
Preview
12:00
Vålerenga II
Vålerenga II
7/25/20263. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Round 13
64%
Bærum
model favours
64%16%20%

Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
86%
over 2.5 goals
79%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bærum64%
×Draw16%
Vålerenga II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
3.16
Vålerenga II
1.75

Bærum creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bærum
3.32
Vålerenga II
1.83

allows per match

Bærum
1.68
Vålerenga II
3.00

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Vålerenga II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Vålerenga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
80%
Bærum or Vålerenga II
84%
Draw or Vålerenga II
36%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
45%
Vålerenga II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
96%
Bærum 2+ goals
82%
Bærum 3+ goals
59%
Vålerenga II 1+ goals
83%
Vålerenga II 2+ goals
52%
Vålerenga II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
77%
Vålerenga II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 3.32, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Vålerenga II away — creates 1.83, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 3.32 + Vålerenga II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.16

Vålerenga II attack 1.83 + Bærum defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bærum scores more
64%
level
16%
Vålerenga II scores more
20%

Bærum at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bærum
DWWWL
II
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bærum vs Vålerenga II — Match Preview

Bærum face Vålerenga II on July 25, 2026 in this 3. Division - Girone 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.