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Bærum vs Strommen — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Bærum
Bærum
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Strommen
Strommen
11/11/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bærum34%
×Draw23%
Strommen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
1.55
Strommen
1.75

Strommen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bærum
1.65
Strommen
1.64

allows per match

Bærum
1.85
Strommen
1.46

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Strommen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Strommen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
57%
Bærum or Strommen
77%
Draw or Strommen
66%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
16%
Strommen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
79%
Bærum 2+ goals
46%
Bærum 3+ goals
20%
Strommen 1+ goals
83%
Strommen 2+ goals
52%
Strommen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
45%
Strommen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

Strommen away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 1.65 + Strommen defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Strommen attack 1.64 + Bærum defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bærum scores more
34%
level
23%
Strommen scores more
43%

Strommen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bærum vs Strommen

Strommen beat Bærum 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.