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Bærum vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Bærum
Bærum
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
7/6/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 14AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bærum66%
×Draw16%
Mjøndalen II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
3.00
Mjøndalen II
1.54

Bærum creates 95% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bærum
2.46
Mjøndalen II
0.85

allows per match

Bærum
2.23
Mjøndalen II
3.54

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
82%
Bærum or Mjøndalen II
84%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
34%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
46%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
95%
Bærum 2+ goals
79%
Bærum 3+ goals
56%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
79%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
45%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
79%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 2.46 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.00

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + Bærum defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bærum scores more
66%
level
16%
Mjøndalen II scores more
18%

Bærum at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bærum vs Mjøndalen II

Bærum beat Mjøndalen II 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.