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Bærum vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Bærum
Bærum
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
L. Bransdal 43'
J. A. Danial 5'
9/27/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 22AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bærum64%
×Draw17%
Funnefoss / Vormsund20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
2.98
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.64

Bærum creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bærum
3.32
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.60

allows per match

Bærum
1.68
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.65

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
80%
Bærum or Funnefoss / Vormsund
83%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
36%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
44%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
95%
Bærum 2+ goals
79%
Bærum 3+ goals
56%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
81%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
49%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
77%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 3.32, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 3.32 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.98

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Bærum defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bærum scores more
64%
level
17%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
20%

Bærum at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. A. Danial
43'
L. Bransdal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bærum vs Funnefoss / Vormsund

Bærum and Funnefoss / Vormsund drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 27, 2025.

Goals: J. A. Danial (5'), L. Bransdal (43').

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.