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Bærum vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Bærum
Bærum
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fløya
Fløya
H. B. Knutsen 84'
K. Coric 36'
N. Grimstad 5'
6/8/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 9AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bærum57%
×Draw17%
Fløya25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
3.04
Fløya
2.03

Bærum creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bærum
3.32
Fløya
2.38

allows per match

Bærum
1.68
Fløya
2.77

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
75%
Bærum or Fløya
83%
Draw or Fløya
43%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
39%
Fløya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
95%
Bærum 2+ goals
80%
Bærum 3+ goals
57%
Fløya 1+ goals
87%
Fløya 2+ goals
60%
Fløya 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
69%
Fløya (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 3.32, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 3.32 + Fløya defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.04

Fløya attack 2.38 + Bærum defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bærum scores more
57%
level
17%
Fløya scores more
25%

Bærum at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Grimstad
36'
K. Coric
73'
J. Moula
76'
J. Moula
76'
J. Moula
84'
H. B. Knutsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bærum vs Fløya

Bærum beat Fløya 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 8, 2025.

Goals: N. Grimstad (5'), K. Coric (36'), H. B. Knutsen (84').

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.