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Bærum vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Bærum
Bærum
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
6/21/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 12AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bærum55%
×Draw19%
Åssiden IF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
2.66
Åssiden IF
1.84

Bærum creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bærum
2.46
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Bærum
2.23
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
73%
Bærum or Åssiden IF
81%
Draw or Åssiden IF
45%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
35%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
93%
Bærum 2+ goals
74%
Bærum 3+ goals
49%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
84%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
55%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
67%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 2.46 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.66

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Bærum defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bærum scores more
55%
level
19%
Åssiden IF scores more
27%

Bærum at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Bærum 2–0 Åssiden IF

Bærum beat Åssiden IF 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 21, 2024.

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.