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Bærum vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Bærum
Bærum
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alta II
Alta II
A. Dacic 87'
L. Bransdal 80'
E. Hjelde 9'
8/9/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 15AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bærum73%
×Draw13%
Alta II13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bærum
3.62
Alta II
1.57

Bærum creates 131% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bærum
3.32
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Bærum
1.68
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Bærum+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bærum ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Bærum or draw
87%
Bærum or Alta II
87%
Draw or Alta II
27%

Winning margin

Bærum wins by 2+
55%
Alta II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bærum 1+ goals
97%
Bærum 2+ goals
87%
Bærum 3+ goals
68%
Alta II 1+ goals
79%
Alta II 2+ goals
46%
Alta II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bærum (draw refunded)
85%
Alta II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bærum at home — creates 3.32, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bærum attack 3.32 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.62

Alta II attack 1.46 + Bærum defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bærum scores more
73%
level
13%
Alta II scores more
13%

Bærum at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
E. Hjelde
80'
L. Bransdal
87'
A. Dacic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bærum vs Alta II

Bærum beat Alta II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Hjelde (9'), L. Bransdal (80'), A. Dacic (87').

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.