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Błonianka Błonie vs Znicz Biała Piska — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
6 – 3
Znicz Biała Piska
Znicz Biała Piska
9/5/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Błonianka Błonie49%
×Draw21%
Znicz Biała Piska30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
2.14
Znicz Biała Piska
1.66

Błonianka Błonie creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Znicz Biała Piska
1.47

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Znicz Biała Piska
2.55

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Znicz Biała Piska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
70%
Błonianka Błonie or Znicz Biała Piska
79%
Draw or Znicz Biała Piska
51%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
29%
Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
88%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
63%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
36%
Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals
81%
Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals
49%
Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
62%
Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Znicz Biała Piska away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.14

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.47 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
49%
level
21%
Znicz Biała Piska scores more
30%

Błonianka Błonie at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Błonianka Błonie 6–3 Znicz Biała Piska

Błonianka Błonie beat Znicz Biała Piska 6-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.