Błonianka Błonie 3–0 Wissa Szczuczyn

Błonianka Błonie

FT

3 – 0

Wissa Szczuczyn

11/27/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Błonianka Błonie55%

×Draw22%

Wissa Szczuczyn23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Błonianka BłonieExpected goals in this matchWissa Szczuczyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.21

Błonianka Błonie

1.98

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.21

Błonianka Błonie creates 64% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

1.73

creates per match

0.56

1.85

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.73

Wissa Szczuczyn

0.56

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.85

Wissa Szczuczyn

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw

77%

Błonianka Błonie or Wissa Szczuczyn

78%

Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn

45%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+

32%

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals

86%

Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals

59%

Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals

31%

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals

70%

Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals

34%

Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)

70%

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more

55%

level

22%

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more

23%

Błonianka Błonie at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff