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Błonianka Błonie vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
2 – 2
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
9/8/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Błonianka Błonie40%
×Draw23%
Ursus Warszawa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.69
Ursus Warszawa
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
63%
Błonianka Błonie or Ursus Warszawa
77%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
60%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
21%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
82%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
50%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
24%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
80%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
48%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
52%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
40%
level
23%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
37%

Błonianka Błonie at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Błonianka Błonie vs Ursus Warszawa

Błonianka Błonie and Ursus Warszawa drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.