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Błonianka Błonie vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
0 – 0
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
10/17/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Błonianka Błonie53%
×Draw22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.98
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.31

Błonianka Błonie creates 51% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
0.78

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
2.22

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
75%
Błonianka Błonie or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
78%
Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
47%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
31%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
86%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
59%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
31%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
73%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
38%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
68%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
53%
level
22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
25%

Błonianka Błonie at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Błonianka Błonie 0–0 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Błonianka Błonie and Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.