Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Błonianka Błonie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
1 – 2
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2/27/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Bemowski Ośrodek Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Błonianka Błonie29%
×Draw22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.51
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 32% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
51%
Błonianka Błonie or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
78%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
71%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
13%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
78%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
44%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
19%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
86%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
59%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
37%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.51

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
29%
level
22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
49%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Błonianka Błonie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Błonianka Błonie 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Bemowski Ośrodek Piłki Nożnej in Warszawa.