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Błonianka Błonie vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
4 – 0
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
10/13/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Błonianka Błonie51%
×Draw21%
Pilica Białobrzegi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
2.08
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.49

Błonianka Błonie creates 40% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
72%
Błonianka Błonie or Pilica Białobrzegi
79%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
49%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
30%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
87%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
61%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
34%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
77%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
44%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
65%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.08

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
51%
level
21%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
28%

Błonianka Błonie at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Błonianka Błonie 4–0 Pilica Białobrzegi

Błonianka Błonie beat Pilica Białobrzegi 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.