Błonianka Błonie 3–1 Pelikan Łowicz: Result & Stats

Błonianka Błonie

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pelikan Łowicz

6/1/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Błonianka Błonie41%

×Draw23%

Pelikan Łowicz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Błonianka BłonieExpected goals in this matchPelikan Łowicz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.54

Błonianka Błonie

1.65

Pelikan Łowicz

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 86 away

1.73

creates per match

1.23

1.85

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.73

Pelikan Łowicz

1.23

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.85

Pelikan Łowicz

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw

64%

Błonianka Błonie or Pelikan Łowicz

77%

Draw or Pelikan Łowicz

59%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+

21%

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals

81%

Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals

49%

Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals

23%

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

79%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

45%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)

53%

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more

41%

level

23%

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

36%

Błonianka Błonie at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff