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Błonianka Błonie vs Mławianka Mława — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
1 – 4
Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
4/15/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Błonianka Błonie42%
×Draw22%
Mławianka Mława35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.83
Mławianka Mława
1.66

Błonianka Błonie creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Mławianka Mława
1.46

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Mławianka Mława
1.94

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Mławianka Mława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
65%
Błonianka Błonie or Mławianka Mława
78%
Draw or Mławianka Mława
58%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
23%
Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
84%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
54%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
28%
Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
81%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
49%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
54%
Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Mławianka Mława away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mławianka Mława attack 1.46 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
42%
level
22%
Mławianka Mława scores more
35%

Błonianka Błonie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Błonianka Błonie vs Mławianka Mława

Mławianka Mława beat Błonianka Błonie 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.