Błonianka Błonie 0–3 Concordia Elbląg

Błonianka Błonie

FT

0 – 3

Concordia Elbląg

3/20/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Bemowski Ośrodek Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Błonianka Błonie53%

×Draw21%

Concordia Elbląg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Błonianka BłonieExpected goals in this matchConcordia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.45

Błonianka Błonie

2.15

Concordia Elbląg

1.45

Błonianka Błonie creates 48% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

1.73

creates per match

1.04

1.85

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.73

Concordia Elbląg

1.04

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.85

Concordia Elbląg

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Concordia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw

74%

Błonianka Błonie or Concordia Elbląg

79%

Draw or Concordia Elbląg

47%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+

32%

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals

88%

Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals

63%

Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals

36%

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

77%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

42%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)

67%

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.15

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more

53%

level

21%

Concordia Elbląg scores more

26%

Błonianka Błonie at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff