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B 93 W vs Fortuna Hjørring W — Kvindeliga 2019

B 93 W
B 93 W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
10/20/2024KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 10Østerbro Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

B 93 W14%
×Draw19%
Fortuna Hjørring W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B 93 W
0.88
Fortuna Hjørring W
2.19

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 149% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 80 away

creates per match

B 93 W
0.73
Fortuna Hjørring W
1.93

allows per match

B 93 W
2.45
Fortuna Hjørring W
1.02

finishing

B 93 W+0.00on par
Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B 93 W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

B 93 W or draw
33%
B 93 W or Fortuna Hjørring W
81%
Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W
86%

Winning margin

B 93 W wins by 2+
4%
Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

B 93 W 1+ goals
59%
B 93 W 2+ goals
22%
B 93 W 3+ goals
6%
Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
89%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
64%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

B 93 W (draw refunded)
17%
Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B 93 W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B 93 W attack 0.73 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.93 + B 93 W defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

B 93 W scores more
14%
level
19%
Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
67%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: B 93 W 0–4 Fortuna Hjørring W

Fortuna Hjørring W beat B 93 W 4-0 in Kvindeliga on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Østerbro Stadion in København.