Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

B 93 vs Vendsyssel FF — 1. Division 2018

B 93
B 93
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
8/2/20241. Division1. Division · Round 3Østerbro Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

B 9337%
×Draw25%
Vendsyssel FF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B 93
1.44
Vendsyssel FF
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 100 away

creates per match

B 93
1.19
Vendsyssel FF
1.15

allows per match

B 93
1.81
Vendsyssel FF
1.70

finishing

B 93+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B 93 ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

B 93 or draw
61%
B 93 or Vendsyssel FF
75%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
63%

Winning margin

B 93 wins by 2+
17%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

B 93 1+ goals
76%
B 93 2+ goals
42%
B 93 3+ goals
18%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
77%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
43%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

B 93 (draw refunded)
49%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B 93 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B 93 attack 1.19 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.15 + B 93 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

B 93 scores more
37%
level
25%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
39%

Vendsyssel FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: B 93 1–2 Vendsyssel FF

Vendsyssel FF beat B 93 2-1 in 1. Division on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Østerbro Stadion in København.