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B 93 vs Sydvest — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

B 93
B 93
FT
3 – 1
Sydvest
Sydvest
10/31/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Østerbro Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

B 9350%
×Draw23%
Sydvest27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B 93
1.79
Sydvest
1.25

B 93 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 20 away

creates per match

B 93
1.62
Sydvest
1.20

allows per match

B 93
1.30
Sydvest
1.95

finishing

B 93+0.00on par
Sydvest+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B 93 ↓

Sydvest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

B 93 or draw
73%
B 93 or Sydvest
77%
Draw or Sydvest
50%

Winning margin

B 93 wins by 2+
27%
Sydvest wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

B 93 1+ goals
83%
B 93 2+ goals
53%
B 93 3+ goals
26%
Sydvest 1+ goals
71%
Sydvest 2+ goals
36%
Sydvest 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

B 93 (draw refunded)
65%
Sydvest (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B 93 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Sydvest away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B 93 attack 1.62 + Sydvest defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sydvest attack 1.20 + B 93 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

B 93 scores more
50%
level
23%
Sydvest scores more
27%

B 93 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "B 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: B 93 3–1 Sydvest

B 93 beat Sydvest 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Østerbro Stadion in København.