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B 93 vs Skive — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

B 93
B 93
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Skive
Skive
11/12/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15Østerbro Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

B 9341%
×Draw25%
Skive34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B 93
1.50
Skive
1.33

B 93 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 85 away

creates per match

B 93
1.62
Skive
1.36

allows per match

B 93
1.30
Skive
1.39

finishing

B 93+0.00on par
Skive+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B 93 ↓

Skive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

B 93 or draw
66%
B 93 or Skive
75%
Draw or Skive
59%

Winning margin

B 93 wins by 2+
20%
Skive wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

B 93 1+ goals
78%
B 93 2+ goals
44%
B 93 3+ goals
19%
Skive 1+ goals
74%
Skive 2+ goals
38%
Skive 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

B 93 (draw refunded)
55%
Skive (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B 93 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Skive away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B 93 attack 1.62 + Skive defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Skive attack 1.36 + B 93 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

B 93 scores more
41%
level
25%
Skive scores more
34%

B 93 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "B 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: B 93 3–1 Skive

B 93 beat Skive 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Østerbro Stadion in København.