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B 93 vs Hobro — 1. Division 2018

B 93
B 93
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hobro
Hobro
4/25/20251. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 6Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

B 9333%
×Draw25%
Hobro42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B 93
1.29
Hobro
1.48

Hobro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 96 away

creates per match

B 93
1.19
Hobro
1.16

allows per match

B 93
1.81
Hobro
1.40

finishing

B 93+0.00on par
Hobro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B 93 ↓

Hobro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

B 93 or draw
58%
B 93 or Hobro
75%
Draw or Hobro
67%

Winning margin

B 93 wins by 2+
14%
Hobro wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

B 93 1+ goals
72%
B 93 2+ goals
37%
B 93 3+ goals
14%
Hobro 1+ goals
77%
Hobro 2+ goals
43%
Hobro 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

B 93 (draw refunded)
44%
Hobro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B 93 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

Hobro away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.40 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B 93 attack 1.19 + Hobro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hobro attack 1.16 + B 93 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

B 93 scores more
33%
level
25%
Hobro scores more
42%

Hobro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hobro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: B 93 5–0 Hobro

B 93 beat Hobro 5-0 in 1. Division on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sundby Idrætspark in København.