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Azzurri 90 vs Young Boys II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
FT
1 – 6
Young Boys II
Young Boys II
6/26/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Azzurri 9021%
×Draw19%
Young Boys II61%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azzurri 90
1.38
Young Boys II
2.45

Young Boys II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Azzurri 90
1.08
Young Boys II
2.58

allows per match

Azzurri 90
2.31
Young Boys II
1.67

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par
Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Young Boys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw
39%
Azzurri 90 or Young Boys II
81%
Draw or Young Boys II
79%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
9%
Young Boys II wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals
75%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
40%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
16%
Young Boys II 1+ goals
91%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
70%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
25%
Young Boys II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Young Boys II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Young Boys II attack 2.58 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more
21%
level
19%
Young Boys II scores more
61%

Young Boys II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Azzurri 90 1–6 Young Boys II

Young Boys II beat Azzurri 90 6-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Chavannes in Chavannes-près-Renens.