Azzurri 90 2–3 Vevey Sports: Result & Stats

Azzurri 90

FT

2 – 3

Vevey Sports

6/13/2021

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Azzurri 9025%

×Draw22%

Vevey Sports54%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Azzurri 90Expected goals in this matchVevey Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.97

Azzurri 90

1.27

Vevey Sports

1.97

Vevey Sports creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 56 away

1.08

creates per match

1.63

2.31

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Azzurri 90

1.08

Vevey Sports

1.63

allows per match

Azzurri 90

2.31

Vevey Sports

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par

Vevey Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Vevey Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw

46%

Azzurri 90 or Vevey Sports

78%

Draw or Vevey Sports

75%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+

10%

Vevey Sports wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals

72%

Azzurri 90 2+ goals

36%

Azzurri 90 3+ goals

14%

Vevey Sports 1+ goals

86%

Vevey Sports 2+ goals

58%

Vevey Sports 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)

31%

Vevey Sports (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Vevey Sports away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Vevey Sports defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vevey Sports attack 1.63 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more

25%

level

22%

Vevey Sports scores more

54%

Vevey Sports at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vevey Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff