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Azzurri 90 vs Olympique de Genève — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
CANC
16:00
Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
3/14/20201. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Azzurri 9040%
×Draw25%
Olympique de Genève35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azzurri 90
1.47
Olympique de Genève
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Azzurri 90
1.08
Olympique de Genève
0.43

allows per match

Azzurri 90
2.31
Olympique de Genève
1.86

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par
Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Olympique de Genève →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw
65%
Azzurri 90 or Olympique de Genève
75%
Draw or Olympique de Genève
60%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
19%
Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals
77%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
43%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
18%
Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
75%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
40%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
53%
Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more
40%
level
25%
Olympique de Genève scores more
35%

Azzurri 90 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Azzurri 90 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azzurri 90 vs Olympique de Genève — Match Preview

Azzurri 90 face Olympique de Genève on March 14, 2020 in this 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Azzurri 90 host Olympique de Genève at Centre sportif de Chavannes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.