Azzurri 90 vs Martigny Sports — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Azzurri 9036%
Martigny Sports41%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 13 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Azzurri 90 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches
Martigny Sports away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Martigny Sports defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.66
Martigny Sports attack 1.26 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Martigny Sports at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Martigny Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Servette II
Amical Saint-Prex
Chênois
Monthey
Prishtina Bern
Portalban / Gletterens
Lancy
Echallens
Naters
Stade Payerne
Meyrin
Coffrane
Sion II
La Chaux-de-FondsMartigny Sports
La Sarraz-EclépensIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Azzurri 90 host Martigny Sports on Saturday, 17 October 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Azzurri 90 vs Martigny Sports
Azzurri 90 beat Martigny Sports 5-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on October 17, 2020.
The match was played at Centre sportif de Chavannes in Chavannes-près-Renens.