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Azzurri 90 vs Lausanne Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
FT
0 – 3
Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
9/26/20201. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Azzurri 9024%
×Draw21%
Lausanne Sport II54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azzurri 90
1.32
Lausanne Sport II
2.06

Lausanne Sport II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

creates per match

Azzurri 90
1.08
Lausanne Sport II
1.82

allows per match

Azzurri 90
2.31
Lausanne Sport II
1.56

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par
Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Lausanne Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw
46%
Azzurri 90 or Lausanne Sport II
79%
Draw or Lausanne Sport II
76%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
10%
Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals
73%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
38%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
15%
Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
87%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
61%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
31%
Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Lausanne Sport II away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lausanne Sport II attack 1.82 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more
24%
level
21%
Lausanne Sport II scores more
54%

Lausanne Sport II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Azzurri 90 0–3 Lausanne Sport II

Lausanne Sport II beat Azzurri 90 3-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Chavannes in Chavannes-près-Renens.