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Azzurri 90 vs Lancy — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
CANC
15:00
Lancy
Lancy
5/8/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Azzurri 9025%
×Draw22%
Lancy53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azzurri 90
1.33
Lancy
2.00

Lancy creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 56 away

creates per match

Azzurri 90
1.08
Lancy
1.70

allows per match

Azzurri 90
2.31
Lancy
1.57

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par
Lancy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Lancy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw
47%
Azzurri 90 or Lancy
78%
Draw or Lancy
75%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
11%
Lancy wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals
74%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
38%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
15%
Lancy 1+ goals
86%
Lancy 2+ goals
59%
Lancy 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
32%
Lancy (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Lancy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Lancy defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lancy attack 1.70 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more
25%
level
22%
Lancy scores more
53%

Lancy at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azzurri 90 face Lancy (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 returns with Azzurri 90 hosting Lancy. Match starts May 8, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Azzurri 90 host Lancy at Centre sportif de Chavannes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.