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Azuriz vs Apucarana — Paranaense - 2 2020

Azuriz
Azuriz
FT
1 – 0
Apucarana
Apucarana
10/11/2020Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Os Pioneiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azuriz58%
×Draw27%
Apucarana15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuriz
1.42
Apucarana
0.56

Azuriz creates 154% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

Azuriz
1.33
Apucarana
0.79

allows per match

Azuriz
0.33
Apucarana
1.50

finishing

Azuriz+0.00on par
Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuriz ↓

Apucarana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Azuriz or draw
85%
Azuriz or Apucarana
73%
Draw or Apucarana
42%

Winning margin

Azuriz wins by 2+
30%
Apucarana wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Azuriz 1+ goals
76%
Azuriz 2+ goals
41%
Azuriz 3+ goals
17%
Apucarana 1+ goals
43%
Apucarana 2+ goals
11%
Apucarana 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Azuriz (draw refunded)
80%
Apucarana (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuriz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuriz attack 1.33 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Azuriz defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Azuriz scores more
58%
level
27%
Apucarana scores more
15%

Azuriz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Azuriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Azuriz 1–0 Apucarana

Azuriz beat Apucarana 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Os Pioneiros in Pato Branco, Paraná.