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Azuriz U20 vs Parana S.T.C. U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Azuriz U20
Azuriz U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Parana S.T.C. U20
Parana S.T.C. U20
4/5/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 6Estádio Os Pioneiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azuriz U2061%
×Draw19%
Parana S.T.C. U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuriz U20
2.42
Parana S.T.C. U20
1.34

Azuriz U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Azuriz U20
2.35
Parana S.T.C. U20
1.50

allows per match

Azuriz U20
1.18
Parana S.T.C. U20
2.50

finishing

Azuriz U20+0.00on par
Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuriz U20 ↓

Parana S.T.C. U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Azuriz U20 or draw
80%
Azuriz U20 or Parana S.T.C. U20
81%
Draw or Parana S.T.C. U20
39%

Winning margin

Azuriz U20 wins by 2+
39%
Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Azuriz U20 1+ goals
91%
Azuriz U20 2+ goals
69%
Azuriz U20 3+ goals
43%
Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals
74%
Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals
39%
Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Azuriz U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuriz U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Parana S.T.C. U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuriz U20 attack 2.35 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 1.50 + Azuriz U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Azuriz U20 scores more
61%
level
19%
Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more
20%

Azuriz U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Azuriz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Azuriz U20 2–2 Parana S.T.C. U20

Azuriz U20 and Parana S.T.C. U20 drew 2-2 in Paranaense U20 on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Os Pioneiros in Pato Branco, Paraná.