Azuriz U20 1–0 Hope Internacional U20

Azuriz U20

FT

1 – 0

Hope Internacional U20

3/2/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 1CT Gralha Azul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Azuriz U2059%

×Draw21%

Hope Internacional U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Azuriz U20Expected goals in this matchHope Internacional U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.16

Azuriz U20

2.13

Hope Internacional U20

1.16

Azuriz U20 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

2.35

creates per match

1.14

1.18

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Azuriz U20

2.35

Hope Internacional U20

1.14

allows per match

Azuriz U20

1.18

Hope Internacional U20

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azuriz U20+0.00on par

Hope Internacional U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuriz U20 ↓

Hope Internacional U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Azuriz U20 or draw

80%

Azuriz U20 or Hope Internacional U20

79%

Draw or Hope Internacional U20

41%

Winning margin

Azuriz U20 wins by 2+

36%

Hope Internacional U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Azuriz U20 1+ goals

88%

Azuriz U20 2+ goals

63%

Azuriz U20 3+ goals

35%

Hope Internacional U20 1+ goals

69%

Hope Internacional U20 2+ goals

32%

Hope Internacional U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Azuriz U20 (draw refunded)

75%

Hope Internacional U20 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuriz U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Hope Internacional U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuriz U20 attack 2.35 + Hope Internacional U20 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.13

Hope Internacional U20 attack 1.14 + Azuriz U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Azuriz U20 scores more

59%

level

21%

Hope Internacional U20 scores more

20%

Azuriz U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Azuriz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuriz U20 vs Hope Internacional U20

Azuriz U20 beat Hope Internacional U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at CT Gralha Azul in Marmeleiro, Paraná.

Azuriz U20 vs Hope Internacional U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Azuriz U20 vs Hope Internacional U20