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Azuriz U20 vs Gremio Maringa U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Azuriz U20
Azuriz U20
FT
3 – 0
Gremio Maringa U20
Gremio Maringa U20
5/4/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 10CT Gralha Azul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azuriz U2085%
×Draw10%
Gremio Maringa U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuriz U20
3.51
Gremio Maringa U20
0.84

Azuriz U20 creates 318% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Azuriz U20
2.35
Gremio Maringa U20
0.50

allows per match

Azuriz U20
1.18
Gremio Maringa U20
4.67

finishing

Azuriz U20+0.00on par
Gremio Maringa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuriz U20 ↓

Gremio Maringa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Azuriz U20 or draw
95%
Azuriz U20 or Gremio Maringa U20
90%
Draw or Gremio Maringa U20
15%

Winning margin

Azuriz U20 wins by 2+
68%
Gremio Maringa U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Azuriz U20 1+ goals
97%
Azuriz U20 2+ goals
86%
Azuriz U20 3+ goals
66%
Gremio Maringa U20 1+ goals
57%
Gremio Maringa U20 2+ goals
21%
Gremio Maringa U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Azuriz U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Gremio Maringa U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuriz U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Gremio Maringa U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuriz U20 attack 2.35 + Gremio Maringa U20 defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.51

Gremio Maringa U20 attack 0.50 + Azuriz U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Azuriz U20 scores more
85%
level
10%
Gremio Maringa U20 scores more
5%

Azuriz U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Azuriz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Azuriz U20 3–0 Gremio Maringa U20

Azuriz U20 beat Gremio Maringa U20 3-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at CT Gralha Azul in Marmeleiro, Paraná.