Azuriz U20 1–1 Araucaria U20: Result & Stats

Azuriz U20

FT

1 – 1

Araucaria U20

6/7/2024

Paranaense U20 · 2nd Stage - 1CT Gralha Azul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Azuriz U2056%

×Draw21%

Araucaria U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Azuriz U20Expected goals in this matchAraucaria U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.21

Azuriz U20

2.04

Araucaria U20

1.21

Azuriz U20 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

2.35

creates per match

1.24

1.18

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Azuriz U20

2.35

Araucaria U20

1.24

allows per match

Azuriz U20

1.18

Araucaria U20

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azuriz U20+0.00on par

Araucaria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuriz U20 ↓

Araucaria U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Azuriz U20 or draw

78%

Azuriz U20 or Araucaria U20

79%

Draw or Araucaria U20

44%

Winning margin

Azuriz U20 wins by 2+

34%

Araucaria U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Azuriz U20 1+ goals

87%

Azuriz U20 2+ goals

60%

Azuriz U20 3+ goals

33%

Araucaria U20 1+ goals

70%

Araucaria U20 2+ goals

34%

Araucaria U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Azuriz U20 (draw refunded)

72%

Araucaria U20 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuriz U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Araucaria U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuriz U20 attack 2.35 + Araucaria U20 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.04

Araucaria U20 attack 1.24 + Azuriz U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Azuriz U20 scores more

56%

level

21%

Araucaria U20 scores more

22%

Azuriz U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Azuriz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff