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Azuqueca vs Villarrobledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Azuqueca
Azuqueca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
11/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 10Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Azuqueca47%
×Draw26%
Villarrobledo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuqueca
1.52
Villarrobledo
1.09

Azuqueca creates 39% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 83 away

creates per match

Azuqueca
1.67
Villarrobledo
0.88

allows per match

Azuqueca
1.31
Villarrobledo
1.36

finishing

Azuqueca+0.00on par
Villarrobledo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuqueca ↓

Villarrobledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Azuqueca or draw
73%
Azuqueca or Villarrobledo
74%
Draw or Villarrobledo
53%

Winning margin

Azuqueca wins by 2+
24%
Villarrobledo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Azuqueca 1+ goals
78%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
45%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
20%
Villarrobledo 1+ goals
66%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
30%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Azuqueca (draw refunded)
63%
Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuqueca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Villarrobledo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuqueca attack 1.67 + Villarrobledo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Villarrobledo attack 0.88 + Azuqueca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Azuqueca scores more
47%
level
26%
Villarrobledo scores more
27%

Azuqueca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuqueca vs Villarrobledo

Villarrobledo beat Azuqueca 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Azuqueca de Henares.