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Azuqueca vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Azuqueca
Azuqueca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Azuqueca71%
×Draw16%
Hogar Alcarreño12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuqueca
2.57
Hogar Alcarreño
0.98

Azuqueca creates 162% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Azuqueca
1.67
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

Azuqueca
1.31
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

Azuqueca+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuqueca ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Azuqueca or draw
88%
Azuqueca or Hogar Alcarreño
84%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
29%

Winning margin

Azuqueca wins by 2+
49%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Azuqueca 1+ goals
92%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
72%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
47%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
62%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
26%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Azuqueca (draw refunded)
85%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuqueca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuqueca attack 1.67 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.57

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Azuqueca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Azuqueca scores more
71%
level
16%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
12%

Azuqueca at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Azuqueca 1–0 Hogar Alcarreño

Azuqueca beat Hogar Alcarreño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Azuqueca de Henares.