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Azuqueca vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Azuqueca
Azuqueca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Azuqueca42%
×Draw27%
Calvo Sotelo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuqueca
1.38
Calvo Sotelo
1.16

Azuqueca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Azuqueca
1.67
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Azuqueca
1.31
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Azuqueca+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuqueca ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Azuqueca or draw
68%
Azuqueca or Calvo Sotelo
73%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
58%

Winning margin

Azuqueca wins by 2+
20%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Azuqueca 1+ goals
75%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
40%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
16%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
69%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
32%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Azuqueca (draw refunded)
57%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuqueca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuqueca attack 1.67 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Azuqueca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Azuqueca scores more
42%
level
27%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
32%

Azuqueca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuqueca vs Calvo Sotelo

Azuqueca and Calvo Sotelo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Azuqueca de Henares.