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Azuqueca vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Azuqueca
Azuqueca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 20Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Azuqueca42%
×Draw26%
Atlético Ibañés32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuqueca
1.42
Atlético Ibañés
1.19

Azuqueca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 30 away

creates per match

Azuqueca
1.67
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

Azuqueca
1.31
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

Azuqueca+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuqueca ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Azuqueca or draw
68%
Azuqueca or Atlético Ibañés
74%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
58%

Winning margin

Azuqueca wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Azuqueca 1+ goals
76%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
41%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Azuqueca (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuqueca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuqueca attack 1.67 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + Azuqueca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Azuqueca scores more
42%
level
26%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
32%

Azuqueca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuqueca vs Atlético Ibañés

Azuqueca beat Atlético Ibañés 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Azuqueca de Henares.