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Azuaga vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Azuaga
Azuaga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 14Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Azuaga60%
×Draw23%
RCP Valverdeño16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuaga
1.73
RCP Valverdeño
0.77

Azuaga creates 125% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 46 away

creates per match

Azuaga
1.61
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Azuaga
0.83
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw
84%
Azuaga or RCP Valverdeño
77%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
40%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+
34%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals
82%
Azuaga 2+ goals
52%
Azuaga 3+ goals
25%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
54%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
18%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)
79%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Azuaga scores more
60%
level
23%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
16%

Azuaga at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuaga vs RCP Valverdeño

Azuaga beat RCP Valverdeño 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio CD Azuaga in Azuaga.